Introduction

An interface for the provision of the outputs of the HESPERIA real-time forecasting tools (HESPERIA REleASE, HESPERIA UMASEP 500), in both pictorial and textual form, was developed in the framework of the project.  Also, HESPERIA REleASE+ and STEREO REleASE tools are provided which have been developed through funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant agreement No. TXS0150641A (National Observatory of Athens) and No. TXS0150642 (Christian-Albrechts-Universität). In particular:

HESPERIA REleASE outputs

The HESPERIA REleASE forecasting scheme provides up to an hour warning time before the protons of 30-50 MeV arrive at Earth, using SOHO/EPHIN (v > 0.9 c) and near-relativistic ACE/EPAM (v <0.8 c) electron measurements. The stored outputs of HESPERIA REleASE include real-time data of electrons and the forecasted proton fluxes in 30, 60 and 90 minutes, as well as the corresponding plots. In addition, HESPERIA REleASE performs forecasts in retrospect, based on historical data. In both cases, the algorithm that is being used is the same. The difference is the data gaps, i.e. historical data have much less data gaps compared to the real-time ones.  Furthermore, virtual HESPERIA REleASE predictions for time periods prior to the initiation of the HESPERIA project (FROM January 1, 2009 TO May 25, 2016) can also be retrieved. The real time outputs start at May 26, 2016. All of the aforementioned outputs are stored in the HESPERIA database server and are available to the end users of HESPERIA.

HESPERIA UMASEP 500  outputs

HESPERIA UMASEP 500 makes real-time predictions for E>500 MeV Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. Both the graphical and textual outputs of the UMASEP forecaster are imported to the HESPERIA database server and are available to the end users of HESPERIA.

HESPERIA REleASE+ outputs

HESPERIA REleASE+ combines the existing HESPERIA REleASE system (the relativistic electron module) with a novel radio module that qualifies type-III radio bursts as a precondition for a proton alert with the aim of reducing specific sources of false alarms. Type-III radio bursts, that are produced by electron beams accelerated in solar eruptive events travelling outward through the corona along open magnetic flux tubes, are used as an independent early evidence of particle escape from the Sun. The radio module automatically detects type-III radio bursts from STEREO-A SWAVES real-time radio spectrograms and determines a set of parameters that narrow down detected type-III radio bursts to those that have the potential of causing near-Earth significant solar proton events. HESPERIA REleASE+ issues a proton alert only if the relativistic electron module creates an alert within the forecasting window set by the radio module. HESPERIA REleASE+ switches back to HESPERIA REleASE when data gaps in real-time radio data prevent proper identification of relevant type-III bursts.

STEREO REleASE outputs

STEREO REleASE was developed following the same principles as the original REleASE system (see Posner et al. 2007). About 15 years of data from the STEREO-A High Energy Telescope (HET) and the Solar Electron Proton Telescope (SEPT) were used to create new and improved forecasting matrices for each instruments. As input the 0.125-0.255 MeV SEPT electron channel and the 0.7-4.0 MeV HET electron channel is utilized to predict the 21-40 MeV proton flux. These energy ranges are available in real time as STEREO-A beacon data. Since SEPT uses a Magnet/Foil-technique to measure electrons, proton contamination is possible and can lead to an increased number of false alarms. Therefore an algorithm was developed that can estimate the level of contamination in real time. With that the electron flux can be corrected as long as the contamination level stays below 35%. If the contamination exceeds this limit, the data are not used.

Short manual for the retrieval of the outputs from the forecasting tools real-time predictions [plots]

  • A user may select to retrieve forecasts [plots] from any of the forecasting tools, that have been stored in the HESPERIA database server in real-time.

  • In order to select a time stamp [date/time] for the plot retrieval, the user should make use of the To: option in the data retrieval interface form. The From: option is not being used for the retrieval.

Real time predictions [Plots]

  • A user may select to retrieve forecasts [plots] from any of the forecasting tools, that have been stored in the HESPERIA database server in real-time.
  • In order to select a timestamp [date/time] for the plot retrieval, the user should make use of the To: option in the data retrieval interface form. The From: option is not being used for the retrieval.

Real time predictions [Plots Slideshow]

  • A user may select to retrieve forecasts [plots] from any of the forecasting tools, that have been stored in the HESPERIA database server in real-time for a specific period in minutes (maximum allowed period is 2 days).

Predictions based on historical data [Plots]

  • A user may select to retrieve forecasts [plots] from the HESPERIA REleASE forecasting tool, based on historical data, stored in the HESPERIA database server.
  • In order to select a timestamp [date/time] for the plot retrieval, the user should make use of the To: option in the data retrieval interface form. The From: option is not being used for the retrieval.

Predictions based on historical data [Plots Slideshow]

  • A user may select to retrieve forecasts [plots] from the HESPERIA REleASE forecasting tool, based on historical data, stored in the HESPERIA database server for a specific period in days (maximum allowed period is 10 days).

Predictions for all forecasting tools (real-time and historical) [textual]

  • A user may select any of the available options for the retrieval of data that are stored in the HESPERIA database server for a specific period in minutes (maximum allowed period is 2 days).
  • In order to select a timestamp [date/time] for the data retrieval, the user should make use of the To: option as well as the From: option in the data retrieval interface form.
  • The user retrieves the data [textual] as an ASCII [print on screen] and a .csv file [download]
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